Te crash of a U-2 spy plane that killed one pilot and injured another during a Tuesday training mission could bolster arguments in favor of unmanned systems, as the long battle against the decades-old plane’s retirement winds closer to an end.
However, analysts said the crash, which occurred in a rural area near Sacramento, did not necessarily sound a death knell for the U-2.
It’s just one data point out of a great many data points that will determine when and if that mission transitions,” said Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst at Teal Group, an aerospace and defense market research firm.
In President Obama’s recent budget request, the U.S. Air Force proposed the retirement of the U-2 after 2018.
That timeline corresponds with the expected addition of enhanced sensors for Northrop Grumman Corp.’s Global Hawk surveillance and reconnaissance drone.
In the president’s budget request, the Air Force said it will maintain the 33-plane U-2 fleet until the Global Hawk’s capabilities are “equal to or greater than U-2 capabilities.”
“The decision was made, that transition will happen,” said Michael Blades, senior industry analyst for aerospace and defense at consulting firm Frost & Sullivan. “I don’t think there’s a whole lot more that can affect that debate.”
The U-2 took its first flight in August 1955. Since then, the glider-like craft built byLockheed Martin Corp. and nicknamed the Dragon Lady has gathered intelligence on U.S. adversaries including the Soviet Union during the Cold War and keyed in on locations in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq.
The plane was revealed to the public in 1960 when it was shot down over the Soviet Union and pilot Francis Gary Powers was captured and held for two years.
The plane can soar higher than 70,000 feet, its sensors able to zero in on objects as small as landmines from 13 miles high. The U-2 seats just one pilot who must breathe from an oxygen tank and wear a full pressure suit similar to those worn by astronauts.
The rivalry with the Global Hawk is part of a larger debate about roles for manned and unmanned systems, especially in intelligence gathering including surveillance missions.
Advocates have touted the drone’s maximum endurance of more than 32 hours. And recently, Northrop Grumman was able to modify the sensors carried by the U-2 so they could fit on the Global Hawk, Blades said. Northrop Grumman currently has 32 Global Hawks in active service.
But analysts have brought up the cost of moving to the Global Hawk and integrating new sensors, whereas the U-2 is already paid for.
“Global Hawks are great platforms,” said Aboulafia of Teal Group. “But if you’re going to replace the U-2, you’re going to have to replace them at a significant expense.”
Future spy planes may not consist solely of unmanned aircraft.
Lockheed Martin has proposed the TR-X, a stealthy plane design that would incorporate major features or components of the U-2 such as its high-altitude flying ability with an “optional” manned capability.
Going all-robot in the spy fleet would be a dramatic change, Aboulafia said. He noted that when the General Atomics Predator surveillance drone was introduced in the 1990s it represented a new capability and not a replacement.
“When unmanned has happened, it’s almost always been an add-on to inhabited,” he said.
